But the underlying trend for the past five years is enc

ncouraging: annual TFP growth of about 3 percent, with especially strong growth in the tertiar

y sector. So, notwithstanding the recent slowdown in aggregate GDP growth, services-led Chi

nese rebalancing is imparting meaningful productivity leverage to the economy as a whole.

The question now is: Can China sustain its recent TFP trajectorya dist

inct possibility in light of an increasingly powerful shift to indigenous innovation and

the sustained services-led productivity of a growing cohort of well-educated knowledge workers-as well as rea

p the benefits of continued upgrading of its capital stock? If it can, the new Chinese study concludes that China’s potential GDP growth rate could hold aro

nd 6 percent over the next five years. Such an outcome would conform quite closely with China’s longer-term ambitions.

So, despite the days of 10 percent Chinese growth being over, which w

as inevitable, there is good reason to believe that the real story is China’s shift from qua

ntitative to qualitative growth. Which suggests China will defy yet again widespread fears of a looming middle-income trap.

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